Tomb Raider/Seabiscuit/Spy Kids 3d

[Oren1]

Tomb Raider: The buzz around this franchise has died down a bit, but Angelie Jolie has been in the news a lot lately and there's a decent marketing push behind it. It can't repeat the origional's opening of 48 million(14+ average, same as BB2), IMO, which is somewhat unusual. The video game already established awareness of the franchise so you could almost look at this as the third film, in a way, which is right around where the interest of a franchise sometimes starts to die off. But a lot of people probably don't even know it's a game, and after the success of Pirates maybe there's a strong demandfor adventure films out there, or has it been quenched? Budget of the first movie: 115, this one: 95. The studio's confidence wasn't as high for this sequel from the start, and it shows. The trailers just don't look all that great, by today's standards. It's got the same amount of points as Seabiscuit on the buzz chart as of Saturday: 12. TR1's cinemascore was a B. Some liked it, some hated it. I'm thinking 34-37 million.

Spy Kids 3d. I heard they're really pushing this one on the kid's television channels/shows(commercials). But the sequel wasn't as popular as the origional. in opened to 16.7 million, the origional did 26. Maybe the 3d gimmick will bring new interest to the series. 19 million.

Seabiscuit. O.K. it's got the same buzz score as Tomb Raider, a lot of the dorks on the message boards are looking forward to it and think it will be a success. Apparently the book is quite good and was popular. O.K., fine. Bridges of Madison County: 10.5 million. Sounds good to me.

[This message was edited by Oren1 on July 20, 2003 at 10:36 PM.]

[This message was edited by Oren1 on July 20, 2003 at 10:37 PM.]

 

[Gillian]

 

[Oren1]

one thing I forgot to mention, Tomb Raider is the #221 selling DVD at Amazon.com, which isn't bad. By comparison, Bad Boys has 3 versions out, which are #'s 307, 1,010, and 3,085. Fast and the Furious is (4 versions) 1,509, 5,373, etc. The top selling Terminator 2 DVD is #97. Spy Kids 2 is 1,149, Spy Kids 1 is 1,530. Bridges of Madison County is 552

lol ... I have a feeling I could be underestimating Tomb Raider. It could be similar to Pirates of the Caribean in that it's slipping under the radar as far as internet buzz goes.

 

[joethor]

what would you say the lines would be regarding the three films? i may be dreaming but i am hoping for a o/u 15 on spy kids

 

[Gillian]

You are dreaming... and what's the point of guessing the over and under? When it comes out it comes out.

 

[Gillian]

Looks like the books are going to make some $$$ this weekend. Oh well, next time.

 

[Gillian]

3-D movies don't make much money. That's why they went out of style in the 80's. Lots of people can't handle the funny screen, or hate wearing the glasses. Plus the trailer for spy kids looks super stupid.

 

[SoundofSilence]

What's the point of guessing the over/under?

Gil, that's the whole point of HANDICAPPING. You generate a line, and if the line that is actually posted by a book differs greatly from the line you generate, you take it.

"Gamblers" who wait for the line to come out, and make their decision based off of it are a sportsbook's wet dream.

 

[joethor]

well put sound.

 

[joethor]

agree with two of your predictions oren. i feel seabiscut will be between 18-22 million. projected opening lines tomb raider o/u 35, spy kids 2 o/u 20 seabiscuit o/u 17

 

[Oren1]

I've been surfing some movie messageboards a bit and... Like I said, some people liked Tomb Raider, some hated it. Apparently some of the people that hated the first one think this one looks better in the trailer, but it's still probably not enough to get them to the theaters... Overall the buzz seems a bit on the negative side for this film. Seabiscuit is similar, I think the people that are looking forward to it, which seems to be quite a few, are outnumbered by those that think it looks boring, and manipulative. And S.W.A.T. appears to have a sizable crowd that's anicipating it's arrival, I saw a bunch of folks that are stoked to see it, and didn't see one negative comment, which was surprising, as, I think the trailer looks a tad on the week side. It's a bit reminiscent of the Rookie, which was crap. But, the combination of Sam Jackson, Collin Ferrel, and L.L. seems to have turned some heads. Spy Kids 3D, some people actually said that the 3D aspect is the only reason they'd want to go, but many people said the first 2 were crap. Probably why the sequel made so much less than the first one. I might stick with 36 for Tomb Raider. I imagine I'll be on the under for Seabiscuit as well, as 10.6 is a bit on the low side, but what the hell.

 

[joethor]

when does wsex usually post their lines?

 

[joethor]

i think seabiscut could potentially represent the best value from a gambling perspective. tomb raider and spy kids give the line makers plenty of historical precedence on which to base their decesions, while seabiscut is somewhat of a wildcard

 

[Oren1]

I'm getting the feeling that people didn't think Tomb Raider 1 sucked as much as Charlie's Angel's 1. At the very least, Angelie Jolie seems to be more popular than the "skanks" in Charlie's Angels, heh. I think I'll have to up my prediction to 38 million. I think I could definitely be underpredicting Seabiscuit as well. 11-13 million? And Spy Kids is playing in an insane number of theaters, by the way, 3500+, not that it will help(?)...

 

[Oren1]

you know what else is crazy, it seems like there are a lot of Orlando Bloom fans out there who were amped to see Pirates of the Caribean.

 

[joethor]

excellent point. i think bloom is a huge factor in that films success. he has the midas touch no question.

 

[joethor]

where are you getting the theater count?

 

[Oren1]

Boxofficemojo.

 

[Hitman26]

I'm predicting 20-25 million for Tomb Raider2. I saw the first one and it was dreadful. I will go see this one because of Gerard Butler. This guy is the best actor you've never heard of and will be a huge star in the next 5 years. I also like Jolie even though she is about as weird as they come.

As for SeaBiscuit, I've been looking forward to this movie since January. The buzz on this movie is that it will be the Oscar champ for 2003. From the crap that I've seen so far this year, that will not be a tough hill to climb. It looks really good and is loaded with quality actors. I have no prediction on the box office results on Sea biscuit because I really don't have a clue on the public's interest.


Goodluck
Hitman

 

[Oren1]

so Tyler Durden is "going out on a limb" with his preliminary Seabiscuit forecast which is around 20 million. I don't know, I'm thinking Gangs of New York is a decent comparison here, which had an all-star cast, a preview that a lot of people just weren't interested in, and pre-Oscar hype. it only made 9.6 million. This one being released in the summer should bump that up a bit, and I guess it has more of a "feel-good" style to it contrasting with Gangs' dark tone, so I don't know, I suspect the over/under might be around 13 million? It's only trailing Tomb Raider by 2 points on the buzz index, but I suspect Tomb Raider will be like Pirates in that it's score will be low compared to it's gross. 18 is somewhat low though. Bad Boys 2 had 22 last Tuesday, but that was without BB1 showing up on the chart yet, whch was stealing some of it's points. It had at least 25 or so points with that tallied in. League of Extraordinary Gentlemen had 22 point the Tuesday before it's release. Could Tomb Raider bomb?